Monthly newsletter where Economic Research analysis new statistics, reviews current economic affairs and provides an outlook.

When you become financially competent, you become responsible for managing your money and your business relationships. This is an excellent opportunity to take the time to learn about finances and get a good overview of your position.

Last week, we published an economic forecast to the year 2027. The housing price and rental price indexes decreased more between months in September and household payment card turnover contracted between years domestically while rising abroad. The Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) published the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which shows that all Committee members agreed to lower the policy rate. Several companies publish financial results this week.

Tomorrow morning, Landsbankinn Economic Research presents a new economic forecast to the year 2027 at a morning meeting in Harpa. This week, the Housing and Construction Authority (HMS) publishes the housing price index, the rental price index and its monthly housing market report. On Wednesday, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) releases the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s last meeting. Last week’s highlight was that traveller numbers to Iceland are slightly up between years in September and there is a small uptick in unemployment.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) lowered the policy rate last week, for the first time in four years. The CBI’s key interest rate is now 9% after having stood unchanged at 9.25% for over a year. Inflation in the eurozone remains on a downward trajectory, measuring 1.8% in September, below the 2% inflation target. Inflation figures for the US will be published this week.

Inflation was slightly lower than expected in September, down from 6.0% to 5.4%. We nevertheless expect that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will wish to proceed with caution when it meets early this week and that it will keep the policy rate unchanged on Wednesday.

This week, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) releases a statement from the Financial Stability Committee and a report on financial stability. Statistics Iceland publishes inflation figures for September on Friday. Last week, the Housing and Construction Authority (HMS) published the housing price index, which rose sharply between months, and the rental price index, which was down between months. Data on payment card turnover, published by the CBI last week, indicates that there is still considerable domestic demand for goods and services.

This week will see the publication of the housing price index, the rental price index and payment card turnover figures for August. Last week we learned that tourist arrivals in August of this year were similar to the same month in 2023. Unemployment increased slightly between months in August. The fiscal budget for 2025 was presented.

This week’s highlights are the publication of August tourist figures and registered unemployment, both set for release tomorrow. Last week, the minutes of the last rate decision meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) were published. The MPC was unanimous in its decision to keep the policy rate unchanged, unlike the previous three meetings, at which one Committee member voted to lower rates by 0.25 percentage points.

Inflation is subsiding slower than hoped for and, despite high policy rates, the Central Bank’s 2.5% inflation target remains a pie in the sky. Why is it hard to get inflation under control and what can be done?

Inflation decreased unexpectedly between months in August. The economy contracted slightly between months in the second quarter. At the same time, it has become clear that GDP growth was higher in 2023 than previously thought, and that the contraction was less pronounced in the first quarter. This week, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) publishes the balance of payment and the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Using supplementary pension savings is a great way to finance your first home. It can be used tax free for a down payment on your first residential housing purchase or paid towards your mortgages for up to 10 years.

Non-domestic payment card turnover in Iceland is higher this year to date than previously thought, according to updated figures published by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) last week. This week’s highpoint is the CBI’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Non-domestic payment card turnover in Iceland is higher this year to date than previously thought, according to updated figures published by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) last week. This week’s highpoint is the CBI’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

What is customer due diligence really? Why do the banks keep asking all these questions and what are they doing with my responses? And do I really need to respond?

Departure by non-domestic travellers from Leifsstöð International Airport in July were very similar to the previous year while departures by domestic tourists are somewhat fewer. August measurements for the consumer price index take place this week and several listed companies publish results.

Nine entries were awarded grants from the Pride Parade Fund of Reykjavík Pride and Landsbankinn for the Pride Parade that takes place on Saturday. One of these entries is “Alternative sports”.

Overnight stays by non-Icelandic travellers across all registered accommodation types contracted by 1.4% between years in June. This contraction is lower than that measured in non-domestic tourist numbers and payment card turnover

Earlier this year, we launched a new chatbot on landsbankinn.is. Ellí has been performing really well and resolves the majority of queries posted by customers. She provides quick answers around the clock, boosting access to banking service. But what are people asking and what are the answers?

The volume of travellers to Iceland decreased by 9% in June this year compared to June 2023. Unemployment was 3.1% in June, slightly higher than the same time last year.

High interest rates have encouraged savings and detracted from demand in the economy. Household deposits had grown by 20% in May this year from the same month in 2023, according to the Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) newly published Hagvísar. Demand deposits have increased most.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.48% in June. As a result, inflation measured 5.8%, down from 6.2%. Turnover based on March-April VAT reports contracted by 4.6% in real terms and the wage index rose by 0.2% in May, according to figures released by Statistics Iceland last week.

The housing price index was up by 1.4% in May and the rental price index by 3.2%, according to figures published last week. While the Bank of England maintained an unchanged policy rate, the Swiss National Bank lowered its rate by 0.25 percentage points. Of most interest domestically this week is without doubt the CPI, to be published by Statistics Iceland on Thursday.

Last week, we saw the publication of unemployment figures, tourist numbers and domestic payment card turnover in May. The US Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged. Later today, the Housing and Construction Authority (HMS) releases the housing price index.

The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its policy rate last week. Stronger labour market figures from the US than generally expected increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will postpone initiation of rate cuts.

Domestic product contracted by 4% in the first quarter of the year and inflation measured 6.2% in May, slightly higher than predicted.

Household deposits have grown considerably alongside rising interest rates. This has resulted in greatly increased interest income for households, in fact in excess of interest expenses.

A majority of the market now consider the monetary policy stance too tight. This opinion has become much more pervasive than in April, in response to steadily growing restraint alongside receding inflation and unchanged interest rates.

Economic growth will be limited in coming years according to our newly published macroeconomic forecast up to and including 2026. We forecast 0.9% growth this year, 2.2% next year and 2.6% in 2026. We expect inflation to recede down to 5.5% by the fourth quarter of this year. A rate-cutting cycle will begin in October, so our forecast, and we expect the economy to pick up speed alongside falling interest rates.