The week ahead
- The Housing and Construction Authority (HMS) publishes the housing price index tomorrow. Eimskip and Iceland Seafood publish results.
- On Wednesday, the CBI announces its interest rate decision. Alongside the rate decision, the CBI publishes its August Monetary Bulletin, containing an updated macroeconomic forecast. HMS publishes the rental price index.
- On Thursday, Nova and Reitir publish financial statements.
- On Friday, Statistics Iceland releases trade in goods and services figures for the second quarter.
Image of the week
The market expects unchanged policy rates this week and for the initial rate cut to come later this year, according to the median of responses to the CBI’s market expectation survey. It appears that the longer the policy rate has remained high, the longer the market expects to wait for rate cuts. Three months ago, the market expected to see initial rate cuts in the third quarter and, in the survey conducted six months ago, the initial cut was expected to take place in the second quarter.
Highlights of the previous week
- Non-domestic payment card turnover in Iceland this year to date is higher than the previous year, according to updated figures from the CBI. Key economic indicators for the travel sector currently indicate growth in tourist numbers between years, as well as in spending. The updated figures also show that domestic card turnover has been considerably higher this year to date than previously estimated, or 4% higher than the same time last year.
- According to a market expectation survey carried out last week, the market generally expects to see initial rate cuts in the fourth quarter. The market now assumes that inflation will be slightly higher in the current and coming quarters.
- Registered unemployment was 3.1% in July, unchanged from June. Unemployment generally falls between months in July and unchanged figures indicate slightly diminished tension in the labour market. Unemployment was 2.8% in July 2023.
- We published both an inflation and policy rate forecast. We expect inflation to remain stable at 6.3% in August and then to decline slowly to 5.4% in November. We anticipate an unchanged policy rate on Wednesday.
- Alvotech, Amaroq, Eik, Kvika, SKEL and Landsvirkjun published financial results.
- Inflation measured 2.9% in the US and 2.2% in the UK. Inflation is down between months in the US; up in the UK. An uptick was expected in 12-month inflation in the UK. Both measurements were slightly lower than expected, contributing to the likelihood of policy rate cuts in both countries in September.
- Arion Bank issued covered bonds and offered switches, Government Debt Management announced the results of a tap and the City of Reykjavík cancelled an intended bond issue.
Statistics and market data
Disclaimer
This review and/or summary is marketing material intended for information purposes and not for business purposes. This marketing material does not contain investment advice or independent investment analysis. The legal provisions that apply to financial advice and financial analysis do not apply to this content, including the ban on transactions prior to publication.Information about the prices of domestic shares, bonds and/or indices is source from Nasdaq Iceland - the Stock Exchange. Landsbankinn’s website contains further information under each individual equity, bond class or index. Information about the prices of non-domestic financial instruments, indices and/or funds are sourced from parties Landsbankinn considers reliable. Past returns are not an indication of future returns.
Information about the past returns of Landsbréf funds is based on information from Landsbréf. Detailed information about the historic performance of individual funds is available on Landsbankinn’s website, including on returns for the past 5 years. Information about the past performance of funds show nominal returns, unless otherwise stated. If results are based on foreign currencies, returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Past returns are not necessarily an indication of future returns.
Securities transactions involve risk and readers are encouraged to familiarise themselves with the Risk Description for Trading in Financial Instruments and Landsbankinn’s Conflict of Interest Policy, available on Landsbankinn’s website.
Landsbankinn is licensed to operate as a commercial bank in accordance with Act No. 161/2002, on Financial Undertakings, and is subject to supervision by the Financial Supervisory Authority of the Central Bank of Iceland (https://www.cb.is/financial-supervision/)
![Hús í Reykjavík](https://images.prismic.io/landsbankinn/87ed3177-9369-4059-a8fe-03efa50f12a3_reykjavik-backyard-traditional-houses-iStock-1247730448-1920.jpg?fit=max&w=3840&&q=50)
![](https://images.prismic.io/landsbankinn/fedd0f99-57e5-4a99-a00f-9117bd38fee8_IMG_0744+HIGHRES+1920px.jpg?fit=max&w=3840&rect=326,0,1268,951&q=50)
![Flugvöllur, Leifsstöð](https://images.prismic.io/landsbankinn/b0c57a7a-f73a-448b-8212-7f6ad4d3b4c3_keflavikurflugvollur-1920.jpg?fit=max&w=3840&rect=0,0,1920,1440&q=50)
![Gönguleið](https://images.prismic.io/landsbankinn/33cdc5f2-10ba-4d29-a88e-3db117f83c02_Gullfoss-gonguleid.jpg?fit=max&w=3840&&q=50)
![](https://images.prismic.io/landsbankinn/a923b976-0b6c-45a6-b7b7-b7efbe46320a_Landsbankinn_Irma_Abstrakt_016.jpg?fit=max&w=3840&rect=468,429,640,480&q=50)
![Litríkir bolir á fataslá](https://images.prismic.io/landsbankinn/0715ffd5-f0a2-446e-bbf1-561d88cd1730_Fataverslun-bolir-varasamt-kortagengi.jpg?fit=max&w=3840&rect=240,0,1440,1080&q=50)
![Paprika](https://images.prismic.io/landsbankinn/a06f0e51-f8d7-4614-95bf-d3f9a1b06eba_Paprika-iStock-518590344-2020.jpg?fit=max&w=3840&rect=210,0,1600,1200&q=50)
![Krani með stiga](https://images.prismic.io/landsbankinn/77bfc8fa-18ef-4436-87e4-b0ba22c46e1b_Krani-med-stiga.jpg?fit=max&w=3840&rect=157,0,2493,1870&q=50)
![Seðlabanki Íslands](https://images.prismic.io/landsbankinn/d633164a-2af2-4a30-90a9-4db379b86373_MBL0019286-Se%C3%B0labanki-1920.jpg?fit=max&w=3840&rect=0,50,1920,1440&q=50)
![](https://images.prismic.io/landsbankinn/bc876641-cdb4-47dd-95bf-a6e3bb856dbc_Landsbankinn_Irma_Abstrakt_09.jpg?fit=max&w=3840&rect=492,263,960,720&q=50)