Weekly bulletin 16 September 2024
This week will see the publication of the housing price index, the rental price index and payment card turnover figures for August. Last week we learned that tourist arrivals in August of this year were similar to the same month in 2023. Unemployment increased slightly between months in August. The fiscal budget for 2025 was presented.
16 September 2024
The week ahead
- Tomorrow, the Housing and Construction Authority (HMS) publishes the housing price index and the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) payment card turnover.
- On Wednesday, HMS publishes the rental price Index, the Federal Reserve announces a policy rate decision and inflation figures will be published in the UK.
- On Thursday, the Bank of England announces its policy rate decision.
Image of the week
In 2016, rules entered into force capping the debt ceiling of the National Treasury at 30% of GDP. Debt reduction was subsequently achieved, reaching a low point of 21.9% of GDP in 2019. The debt ceiling rule was temporarily suspended during the pandemic and the National Treasury accumulated debt quickly. According to the fiscal budget proposal for 2025, Treasury debt is expected to be 31.4% of GDP that year, just above the ceiling. Other things remaining equal, the rule enters into force again in 2026.
Highlights of the previous week
- Price measurements for the September Consumer Price Index were carried out last week. We expect the CPI to increase by 0.08% between months in September and inflation to decrease from 6.0% to 5.7%. We expect further decreases in coming months and for 12-month inflation to hit 4.9% at year end.
- Around 281,000 non-domestic travellers passed through Leifsstöð International Airport in August, 0.3% more than in August 2023. This year to date, tourist numbers are up by 0.8% compared to the same period last year. Domestic departures are considerably up in August this year compared to August 2023, or by 52,000, representing a 13% increase from 2023. This year to date, overseas travel by Icelanders is up by 0.7%.
- Registered unemployment was 3.6% in August, up from 3.1% in July. Unemployment is slightly higher than the same time last year, when it was 2.9%.
- The CBI corrected previously published figures on foreign trade. Instead of an ISK 30.5 bn deficit in the second quarter, the CBI now sets the deficit at ISK 43.9 bn.
- Inflation measured 2.5% in the US in August. Core inflation, i.e. inflation less food and energy, is slightly higher, or 3.2%. These figures increase the likelihood of a policy rate cut on Wednesday. The ECB lowered rates by 25 percentage points, in line with expectations.
- Municipality Credit Iceland and Alma íbúðafélag issued bonds, Government Debt Management announced the results of tap.
- In the stock market, Play published load figures, Skel announced the completion of due diligence for the merger of Samkaup, Heimkaup and Orkan, and JBT presented plans for the future organisational structure of JBT Marel.
Statistics and market data
Disclaimer
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