19 February 2024
The week ahead
- On Tuesday, the Housing and Construction Authority (HMS) releases the housing price index for January. Síminn publishes results.
- On Wednesday, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) releases the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee’s last meeting. Iceland Seafood publishes results.
- On Thursday, Brim publishes results
- On Friday, Statistics Iceland releases trade in goods and services figures for the fourth quarter of 2023.
Image of the week
Alongside rising education levels in Iceland and increased labour force participation by women, the composition of the labour market has changed. In the period 1991 to date, managers, specialists, professionally qualified staff and service and retail sector employees have grown in number while office workers, farmers and fishermen have grown fewer. Tradespeople have also grown slightly fewer.
Highlights of the previous week
- February price measurements for the Consumer Price Index were carried out last week. We expect the Index to rise by 0.89% between months and inflation to decrease from 6.7% to 6.1%. Inflation will continue to recede in coming months, down to around 5% in May, in our opinion.
- Eik, Eimskip, Kvika Bank, Reginn and Reitir published results, Sýn published an earnings warning and Amaroq Minerals completed a stock offering.
- Arion Bank, Íslandsbanki and Landsbankinn published annual and sustainability reports.
- Municipality Credit Iceland auctioned bonds, Landsbankinn auctioned covered bonds and the City of Reykjavík auctioned bonds.
- Economic Research published a new podcast to the Forum in which James Ashley, Head of International Market Strategy & Head of Strategic Advisory Solutions EMEA + Asia with Goldman Sachs, discusses the economic outlook (in English).
Statistics and market data
Disclaimer
This review and/or summary is marketing material intended for information purposes and not for business purposes. This marketing material does not contain investment advice or independent investment analysis. The legal provisions that apply to financial advice and financial analysis do not apply to this content, including the ban on transactions prior to publication.Information about the prices of domestic shares, bonds and/or indices is source from Nasdaq Iceland - the Stock Exchange. Landsbankinn’s website contains further information under each individual equity, bond class or index. Information about the prices of non-domestic financial instruments, indices and/or funds are sourced from parties Landsbankinn considers reliable. Past returns are not an indication of future returns.Information about the past returns of Landsbréf funds is based on information from Landsbréf. Detailed information about the historic performance of individual funds is available on Landsbankinn’s website, including on returns for the past 5 years. Information about the past performance of funds show nominal returns, unless otherwise stated. If results are based on foreign currencies, returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Past returns are not necessarily an indication of future returns.Securities transactions involve risk and readers are encouraged to familiarise themselves with the Risk Description for Trading in Financial Instruments and Landsbankinn’s Conflict of Interest Policy, available on Landsbankinn’s website. Landsbankinn is licensed to operate as a commercial bank in accordance with Act No. 161/2002, on Financial Undertakings, and is subject to supervision by the Financial Supervisory Authority of the Central Bank of Iceland (https://www.cb.is/financial-supervision/)You may also be interested in
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24 June 2024
The housing price index was up by 1.4% in May and the rental price index by 3.2%, according to figures published last week. While the Bank of England maintained an unchanged policy rate, the Swiss National Bank lowered its rate by 0.25 percentage points. Of most interest domestically this week is without doubt the CPI, to be published by Statistics Iceland on Thursday.
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18 June 2024
Last week, we saw the publication of unemployment figures, tourist numbers and domestic payment card turnover in May. The US Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged. Later today, the Housing and Construction Authority (HMS) releases the housing price index.
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10 June 2024
The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its policy rate last week. Stronger labour market figures from the US than generally expected increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will postpone initiation of rate cuts.
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3 June 2024
Domestic product contracted by 4% in the first quarter of the year and inflation measured 6.2% in May, slightly higher than predicted.
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13 May 2024
Household deposits have grown considerably alongside rising interest rates. This has resulted in greatly increased interest income for households, in fact in excess of interest expenses.
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6 May 2024
A majority of the market now consider the monetary policy stance too tight. This opinion has become much more pervasive than in April, in response to steadily growing restraint alongside receding inflation and unchanged interest rates.
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29 April 2024
Economic growth will be limited in coming years according to our newly published macroeconomic forecast up to and including 2026. We forecast 0.9% growth this year, 2.2% next year and 2.6% in 2026. We expect inflation to recede down to 5.5% by the fourth quarter of this year. A rate-cutting cycle will begin in October, so our forecast, and we expect the economy to pick up speed alongside falling interest rates.
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29 April 2024
Landsbankinn Economic Research forecasts limited economic growth this year. Inflation remains persistent and rate cuts aren’t expected until this fall.
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22 April 2024
Nominal housing prices have risen by 5.2% in the past 12 months, according to a new housing price index, and the real price of residential housing is slightly higher than the same time last year.
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15 April 2024
Inflation will recede somewhat in April, from 6.8% to 6.1%, only to remain fairly stable in the coming months and stand at 5.9% in July, according to our newest inflation forecast. Despite the dent interest rate increases have made in demand, the economy is still going fairly strong and there is tension in the labour market. Inflation expectations remain well above target.