Markets overview

A majority of the market now consider the monetary policy stance too tight. This opinion has become much more pervasive than in April, in response to steadily growing restraint alongside receding inflation and unchanged interest rates.

Economic growth will be limited in coming years according to our newly published macroeconomic forecast up to and including 2026. We forecast 0.9% growth this year, 2.2% next year and 2.6% in 2026. We expect inflation to recede down to 5.5% by the fourth quarter of this year. A rate-cutting cycle will begin in October, so our forecast, and we expect the economy to pick up speed alongside falling interest rates.

Landsbankinn Economic Research forecasts limited economic growth this year. Inflation remains persistent and rate cuts aren’t expected until this fall.

Nominal housing prices have risen by 5.2% in the past 12 months, according to a new housing price index, and the real price of residential housing is slightly higher than the same time last year.